How Much is Enough?

Upon doing some research this morning, I found several "lists" of items scattered from website to website.  Lists are good in general and are even better to create and develop a prepardness mindset.  I've got several of them myself.   Understanding the writers intention may have simply been to provide some items to collect, one of the more important things that was missing were the quantities or amounts.  That got me thinking.

When a list has ammunition, obviously you want your preps to be in the caliber firearms you have, but how much do you need?  How much do you want?  These are two separate things and "a lot" is probably not the best answer.  Honestly, I am one of those people that can never have enough ammo, but back to the point.  Need? To answer this question, begin calculating how many people in your family will have firearms in a SHTF situation.  Then, how many guns will they have?  My son just got a new shotgun recently for Christmas, so now I have to add his 12 ga. as an extra and get the additional ammo to meet the need for another weapon.  Based on my training, round usage, fire discipline, and accuracy, my ammo starting point (Need) is in the 500 rounds per weapon at the minimum.  My "want" is closer to 2000+ rounds to practice and have a little fun with.

This exercise will work for just about every item in your SHTF supplies.  I recently conducted a burn test for my make shift oil lamps and candles I bought at a bargain.  Here's what I found....a 10" tapered candle has a burn time of about 50 minutes per inch, so I got 8-9 hours of light from one candle.  There are roughly four to five hours of darkness each night in which we are awake.  1 candle would last 2 nights; 15 candles would last 30 days; minimum light in a room requires about 4 candles per person; 4 people in my family, so approximately 240-250 candles would last 30 days at a minimum level.  So now you know the answer to how many candles do I need.  There's a much longer burn test for oil lamps, but the process is the same to determine how much oil (kerosene) do you need.

To get from a need amount to a want amount can involve using logic in the examples above, using estimates since I've never been in a SHTF situation,  and it also involves emotion.  This is what I refer to as the "I feel like I've got enough" amount.

The emotional piece of preparing can be an obstacle at times and get me distracted on one particular item or a single category.  We just have to recognize it and use it appropriately.  Experienced preppers know that well-rounded and diverse prep items and lists are much better than a swimming pool full of water but nothing to go with it.  So if you're prepping from an emotional standpoint, lose the tunnel vision and broaden your viewpoint by using some math and logic.

Final note, when calculating your "Need" and "Want" amounts, don't forget about potential barter.  A few extra candles, a quart of kerosene, a box of the cheap maccaroni/chees, or some extr 2-liter bottles of water can make a bad situation just a little better for you and others.

The Romance of Bugging Out

It's not hard to see how survivalists and preppers are attracted to bugging out during a catestrophic event.  Heck, there's even a TV show titled, "Doomsday Bunkers"  where they have acres and acres of land in a remote location.   Hollywood has portrayed bugging out in many movies and continues to fuel the romance.  Lone Wolf characters in "Book of Eli" and "I Am Legend" make me want to be like them.  Then after the movie credits finish rolling off the screen, REALITY hits.  Dang it!

For most preppers having a Bug Out Location [BOL] just isn't an option.  First and foremost, it requires valuable resources.  Either land, a dwelling of some sort, or a very close friend or family that would be willing to accept you and your family in a SHTF situation.  Like I said,  these are very rare for most preparness minded people.

In the short term,  I have reconciled to Bugging In or Sheltering In Place in my current home.  It's a 2-story, 4 bedroom standard suburban looking house in a neighborhood of about 175 homes.  So how do you develop a close network or support group of like-minded neighbors while maintaining Operational Security [OP-SEC] and build your prepping items and skills all at the same time?

OP-SEC is paramount in this type of situation.  174 hungry neighbors could pretty much do whatever they wanted and short of a heavily armed entrenchment, you'd never be able to stop them from taking everything. The 2 biggest dangers to blow your cover are #1 - Open garage doors,  and #2 - mouthy neighbor kids that come over all the time.  Our 2 kids know what we have in general terms and it's for the case of a big snow storm or if the lights go out for a couple of days.  They also know through consistent encouragement and reminding not to tell anyone about water, food, ammo, or even the amount of toilet paper that our family has on site.  Earlier on as we got started, the mouthy kids forced us to relocate our pantry and shift our water supply to closets and other closed off rooms.  It's been over a year now, and no kid has said, "I'm coming to your house when the Zombies come!" in a long time.

Before prepping, the garage door would stay open all day on a Saturday while I was working outside.  Maybe even overnight by a mistake every now and then.  Now it's closed.  In and out.  Up and down.  That's it.  We've done it for so long now, it's just habit.  Another benefit, is that it saves money on heating and cooling too.

Lastly, I've been reviewing the lay of the land for our neighborhood.  Ingress, egress, flow of traffic, choke points, surrounding land features, sectors of fire, etc., trying to anticipate what a SHTF situation might mean for staying put.  Other ideas for security might include installing door bars in your home, planting rose bushes under the windows, knowing how to build barb wire obstacles, considering what else can be used to stop or slow entry into your home, and barricading neighborhood entery points.  Thinking and preparing now provides a greater comfort level with Sheltering In Place as the option to Bugging Out.